By PETER WALLSTEN, Wall Street Journal, JANUARY 19, 2010

WASHINGTON—Democrats’ loss in Tuesday’s race for a Massachusetts Senate seat is a stark illustration of how support from independent voters has collapsed, a phenomenon that’s prompting party leaders to revamp their playbook for this year’s midterm elections.

Independent voters—typically centrist, white and working-class—backed President Barack Obama and the Democrats in 2008. But Massachusetts is now the third Obama-won state in the past three months where independents have swung decisively Republican.

Polls in the days leading up to the vote suggested the lead for Republican Scott Brown came about largely because of his advantage among independents over Democrat Martha Coakley.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that Mr. Obama’s job-approval rating among independents nationwide is 41%. That’s an 11-point drop from his performance on Election Day in 2008, when he won 52% of independents, and a near-20-point decline among that group from the heights of his popularity soon after taking office.

“The independents are the fulcrum of the American electorate,” said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the Journal survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “Simply put, for the Democrats and Barack Obama, the arrows have been pointing down.”

Read more at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704561004575013411330904680.html

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